October 13 market news roundup.

Bank of America forecasts gold will reach $4,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a full-year average price of $4,813 per ounce expected in 2027. The bank noted that gold prices are highly likely to only form a true bottom when three conditions are simultaneously met: inflation and Iran war concerns subside, the U.S. dollar stops appreciating, and the Federal Reserve is no longer in a tightening cycle. The central bank of Congo announced it will raise its gold reserves from 3 tonnes to 5 tonnes before year-end, and stated it will intervene using foreign exchange reserves amid persistently rising inflation.

Middle East developments: Houthi forces launched four rounds of attacks on Saudi Arabia, striking airports and energy facilities. U.S. media reported that Saudi Arabia stated its air defense interceptor missile stockpile is insufficient. Iran said it will not abandon nuclear technology under foreign pressure. Terminal 4 of King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was attacked. Iran's military stated that vessels in the Strait of Hormuz that turn off their navigation identification systems will be treated as hostile targets. Senior Iranian official Rezaei said the United States has accepted some of Iran's conditions regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but responses to other conditions have been inadequate. If war breaks out again, new capabilities will be demonstrated, including strikes on regional cables and data centers. Iran's foreign minister stated that Iran plans to offer assistance in facilitating dialogue between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Regional sources said Saudi Arabia indicated it will not reach a ceasefire with the Houthis until the Yemeni government recaptures lost territory. Market attention is focused on Wednesday's CPI release and Thursday's U.S. retail sales data, known as the "terror data."

Spot gold (London gold): On the technical front, last Friday's daily chart showed a small bullish candle, with the Bollinger Bands beginning to narrow, indicating the price is about to choose a new direction. The KDJ indicator shows a bullish crossover with expanding volume, while the MACD fast line remains below the slow line but the green energy bars are gradually converging. Currently, the broader trend remains biased upward, with the medium-term maintaining a phased downtrend. On the short-term 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the price is about to choose a new direction. The KDJ indicator shows a bearish crossover with expanding volume, while the MACD fast line is above the slow line but the red energy bars are converging. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are widening, and the price has chosen a new direction as expected. The KDJ indicator shows a bullish crossover with expanding volume, while the MACD fast line is below the slow line but the green energy bars are gradually converging. Short-term prices pulled back as expected, and the near-term outlook is expected to be dominated by a slight rebound followed by a pullback. Downside support is seen at the 4153/4143/4124 level, while upside resistance is at the 4170/4197/4207 level.

Shanghai gold: Watch resistance at 908/911 and support at 902/898.

Spot silver (London silver): The broader trend is wide-range consolidation, with a phased downtrend in the medium term. Short-term prices pulled back as expected, and the near-term outlook is expected to be dominated by a slight rebound followed by a pullback. Upside focus is at the 63/70.8 level, while downside focus is at the 56.5/46.9 level.

Shanghai silver: Watch the range of 14,620-15,555, with a wider band between 13,940 and 16,300.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors bear their own risks when acting on this information.