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According to Vortexa data, Iran's seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September and had not recovered as of October 5. The total volume of Iranian crude stranded on tankers at sea has dropped to approximately 83 million barrels, of which about 43 million barrels are trapped west of the Strait of Hormuz, unable to be shipped out due to the U.S. blockade. Excluding Iran, crude flows in the Gulf region had recovered to more than 81% of pre-war levels by September, driven primarily by Saudi Arabia's export recovery.

The U.S. blockade of Iran is directly cutting off its seaborne crude exports. Data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa shows that Iran's seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September and had not recovered as of October 5. Meanwhile, Russia's crude exports bucked the trend, rising 6% month-on-month in September to 3.79 million barrels per day. The diverging export trajectories of Iran and Russia are reshaping the supply landscape for sanctioned crude.

Vortexa data shows that in early September, Iran's 14-day average seaborne crude exports were still at 230,000 barrels per day, before rapidly dropping to zero. Claire Jungman, the agency's head of maritime risk and intelligence, said the U.S. blockade physically prevents Iranian crude from leaving the Persian Gulf, achieving what years of sanctions could not accomplish.

Meanwhile, Russia's crude exports have continued to grow. According to Vortexa, excluding Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) crude and KEBCO crude, Russia's September crude exports rose 6% month-on-month to 3.79 million barrels per day.

The combination of blocked Iranian exports and increased Russian exports highlights how Middle East conflict and the U.S. blockade are jointly reshaping international crude oil trade flows.

Iran's Seaborne Exports Hit Zero, 43 Million Barrels Still Trapped West of the Strait

According to Vortexa data, the total volume of Iranian crude stranded on tankers at sea has fallen to approximately 83 million barrels, of which about 43 million barrels are trapped west of the Strait of Hormuz, unable to be shipped out due to the U.S. blockade.

The blocked export channel affects more than just Iranian crude. Vortexa noted that Iran's liquefied petroleum gas exports fell 48% month-on-month in September, dropping to the lowest level since at least January 2023. This indicates that the blockade's impact has extended from crude oil to other energy products.

However, export flows dropping to zero does not mean Iran's crude stockpiles have disappeared. The tens of millions of barrels of crude still stranded on tankers mean that some supply has not yet entered the international market, but whether it can be reloaded and through which channels it can be sold in the future still depends on the duration of the blockade and regional shipping security conditions.

Russia's Exports Grow Month-on-Month, Pressure on China's Demand for Iranian Oil Eases

As Iran's crude exports are blocked, Russian crude is filling part of the supply gap. Vortexa's Jungman said Chinese buyers' urgent demand for Iranian crude has declined because Russian crude has filled part of the void.

Vortexa data shows that combined crude exports from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela totaled 4.73 million barrels per day in September, down from 6.39 million barrels per day in the same period last year. With Iran's exports falling sharply, Russia's share of what the agency calls "high-risk crude exports" has risen to 80%.

These figures also indicate that Russia's export growth does not mean the three countries' total crude supply has recovered. On the contrary, their combined exports remain significantly below year-ago levels, and the export structure is tilting further toward Russia. It should be noted that Vortexa's figure of 3.79 million barrels per day excludes CPC and KEBCO crude, and should not be directly compared with Russian crude export data using different methodologies.

Other Gulf Countries' Exports Recover, Supply Improvement Still Faces Shipping Risks

While Iran's exports have dropped to zero, crude exports from other Gulf producers are recovering. Vortexa data shows that excluding Iran, crude flows in the Gulf region recovered to more than 81% of pre-war levels by September, driven primarily by Saudi Arabia's export recovery.

But rising export volumes do not mean energy supply risks have been eliminated. The Strait of Hormuz remains under the shadow of regional conflict, and tanker transit, insurance costs, and shipping arrangements could all affect actual deliveries. Even if some producers resume exports, whether crude can safely and steadily reach buyers remains a challenge the international energy market must confront.

Overall, the U.S. blockade has caused a substantial disruption to Iran's crude exports, while Russia has gained some space from the changing export structure. At the same time, export recovery in other Gulf countries has provided some buffer for global supply. Going forward, the market will continue to watch whether the U.S. blockade can be sustained, whether Iran's stranded crude can re-enter the market, and whether Russia's export growth is sufficient to offset the loss of Iranian supply.

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