The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1117 GMT - Markets will pay attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for any confirmation of the Fed's independence, Marex FX's Jonathan Pryor says in a note. The speech is "an early opportunity [for Warsh] to stamp his authority on the committee at a time when the Fed is facing an unusually complex mix of economic, fiscal and political pressures", Pryor says. Investors will look for indications that Warsh can lead the Fed through this challenging environment, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1033 GMT - Yields on U.S. Treasurys and European bonds rise while the dollar stays steady in mid-morning European trade, ahead of the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will speak Friday. "Overall, monetary policy expectations continue to point to an interest rate hold at the Fed's next meeting before an increase by the end of the year," DHF Capital S.A's Bas Kooijman says in a note. The DXY dollar index is stable at 99.192. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 0.8 basis points at 4.672%; the 10-year German Bund yield rises 3.1 basis points to 3.253% and the 10-year U.K. gilt yield is up 2.6 basis points at 5.037%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
1011 GMT - The cost of insuring euro credit against default remains steady as data release calendar is light on Thursday. Investors await a speech by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday to gain clues on the possible path of future Fed interest-rate decisions. Investors will also be looking to see whether Warsh is prepared to "strongly assert the Fed's independence when faced with the troublesome optics of the administration trying to influence U.S. borrowing costs", Peel Hunt's Kallum Pickering says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps is unchanged at 245 basis points, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0900 GMT - Traders looked to comments by the BOJ's Himino for reassurance that a September rate hike is coming, though the yen's reaction suggests the messaging was more measured than some hoped. While the yen's slight weakening indicates some disappointment that Himino wasn't more explicit, his tone is consistent with a policy board that appears to be considering faster tightening, in endorsing market pricing for a September rate hike, says MUFG's Derek Halpenny. Himino stressed the need to be more alert to inflation risks, which Halpenny says is "the closest you will get to guidance that the pace of rate hikes could be increased." Healso confirmed the BOJ doesn't need full data on past hikes before moving again. With nearly all rate-hike pricing intact, MUFG thinks the BOJ has given a clear signal of intent. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
0845 GMT - Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' tightening cycle is likely over, as the central bank shifts its attention to support the struggling economy, Capital Economics' Jason Tuvey says in a note. GDP growth slowed further in 2Q to 2.3% on year, its worst outturn beyond the pandemic since late-2009, he notes. Besides a hit to consumer spending amid the energy shock, the economy is also struggling with the effects of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.'s anti-corruption campaign. "For our part, though, we think the recovery will be slow and bumpy and our GDP growth forecasts lie below the consensus," the economist says. CE expects BSP to remain on hold for the rest of 2026, before delivering rate cuts early next year. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0843 GMT - The Japanese yen risks weakening if comments by Bank of Japan officials suggest they are in no hurry to raise interest rates further, even if they hike rates at the September policy meeting, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. Money markets show investors expect two 25 basis-point rate increases by early next year, LSEG data show. "The risks are that officials disappoint markets on the dovish side," he says. The most plausible path for the dollar to stay below 160 yen would be if the U.S. Federal Reserve officials shows a preference for keeping interest rates on hold, rather than raising them in the coming months, he says. The dollar trades steady at 159.30 yen. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0829 GMT - The euro trades steady against the dollar as crude oil prices remained contained, with Brent crude last down 0.5% at $87.38. "The price of crude oil continues to defy expectations of sharper price rises and how the energy price story plays out over the coming weeks will be an important backdrop heading into a heavy month of G-10 central bank meetings," MUFG's Derek Halpenny says in a note. However, natural gas storage in Europe is a concern. The risk of higher inflation and weaker growth in Europe continues to increase and could potentially weaken the euro against the dollar in coming weeks, Halpenny says. The euro is unchanged at $1.1651. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0801 GMT - The Bank of Korea could stand pat at its next rate-setting meeting in October after a second straight rate hike, analysts say. The probability of another hike at the Oct. 22 meeting "is not particularly high" as the BOK may now prefer a more gradual pace of tightening, JPMorgan's Seok Gil Park writes in a note. Park says the BOK could deliver additional hikes in November, February and May. Goldman Sachs' Goohoon Kwon and Irene Choi say the BOK could tighten policy at a much slower pace, with the next hike likely not coming until 1Q 2027. They note that BOK Gov. Shin views the latest hike as preemptive and expects the board to take time to assess the impact of recent hikes. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
0759 GMT - Nvidia's commitments to finance some companies in the AI ecosystem complicates the firm's risk profile, Saxo's Charu Chanana says in a note. While the funding programs can help Nvidia "secure scarce supply, accelerate customer deployments and expand its addressable market," they also complicate the tech company's risk profile, she says. "Investors increasingly need to consider customer credit quality, leases, guarantees, revenue-sharing agreements and Nvidia's equity investments--not just GPU shipments," Chanana says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0746 GMT - Copper moves slightly lower in morning European trade after the U.S. dollar strengthened and hit investor appetite, ANZ analysts write. Additionally, there are signs that a supply squeeze might be easing given the premium for spot copper over three-month futures has fallen, they say. However, globally inventories continue to be drawn down, they caution. The market is on edge as it awaits an announcement from the White House on plans for tariffs on imported refined copper, they add. This worry has triggered a flow of copper into the country in recent months. Three-month LME futures fall 0.3% to $14,219 a metric ton. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0733 GMT - New York gold futures trade flat at $4,654.70 a troy ounce in morning European trade. The market remains stuck between expectations of higher U.S. interest rates, which would weight on non-yielding assets like gold, and worries over U.S. debt. While higher rates could hit gold prices, the downside looks limited as the debasement trade continues to attract investor buying, ANZ analysts write. The debasement trade means buying assets expected to hold their value against the weakening of the dollar and other fiat currencies.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0731 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall due to easing inflation fears as oil prices move lower. This follows media reports that Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani is set to visit Iran on Thursday for talks on resolving the U.S.-Iran conflict. In addition, reported Iran-Oman talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have raised optimism about potential easing in oil supply disruptions. Brent crude price drops 1.7% to $86.3 per barrel. Ten-year gilt yields fall 1.0 basis point to last trade at 5.002%, Tradeweb data show.