Markets have signaled to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh that they want more explicit guidance about how the U.S. central bank intends to restore price stability. If Warsh can’t supply answers on Friday in his keynote address at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., his credibility may fall victim to a crisis of his own making.
“Details, details, details: This is what investors are looking for, not consultant-speak,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.
Warsh, who became Fed chairman in May, has been deliberately taciturn about his view of economic conditions, saying reduced Fed communication improves the market’s ability to interpret economic signals. While he has won plaudits on Wall Street and Main by insisting the Fed will return inflation to its long-held 2% annual target, he also roiled the stock and bond markets in July by refusing to explain, at a post-policy-meeting press conference, just how the Fed will make policy decisions under his leadership.
Jackson Hole is Warsh’s chance to course correct.
“It will be important for the chairman to provide at least some insight into his own personal framework for thinking about achieving price stability,” says PIMCO’s Richard Clarida.
Warsh hasn’t acknowledged to date what conditions would warrant raising the benchmark federal-funds rate from its current target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, or whether he would even support such a move to rein in inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Tuesday that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s official inflation benchmark, rose 3.7% in July on a year-over-year basis, matching the increase seen in June.
Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, increased at a 3.3% annual rate for the second consecutive month.
Stubbornly high inflation has driven up term premiums in the bond market, and sparked more dissent about rate decisions on the Federal Open Market Committee than the Fed has seen in many years. Three FOMC members—Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari—voted in July in favor of a quarter-point increase in the fed-funds rate that would have lifted the target range to 3.75%-4.00%.
Additionally, “many” policymakers said at the July meeting that raising rates would “likely be necessary” if inflation doesn’t decline, according to the latest FOMC minutes, released last week.
Futures-market traders have placed roughly 40% odds on a rate hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Investors likely would take comfort in indications by Warsh that he would support hiking rates if progress on disinflation stalls, writes Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX research and North America strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. “The market has a hard time dealing with a Fed chair who does not say outright that he will support rate increases, however reluctantly, if they are needed to get inflation down,” he wrote.
If Warsh declines again Friday to provide details about what indicators and near-term conditions he is weighing in considering rate policy, the markets may object again. Englander believes there is growing reluctance by investors to give the new Fed chairman the benefit of the doubt.
Still, Fed watchers are apt to learn a few new things from the Jackson Hole speech. Warsh likely will take some time to further defend his rationale for restricting Fed communications, and offer his thoughts on larger themes that could affect monetary policy in the coming years, including productivity growth or shocks to the global economy.
Investors may also get an interim update on the five task forces Warsh created to study Fed communications, the Fed’s balance sheet, economic data, the current inflation framework, and productivity and jobs.
Perhaps more than his recent predecessors, Warsh faces an uphill challenge in delivering a message that will placate markets, particularly investors in long-term Treasury bonds. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently increased the government’s repurchase of long-dated Treasuries, a move aimed at curbing rising yields.
The 30-year bond yield stood at 5.19% Tuesday, down from a recent high of 5.33%, but remains elevated due to concerns about inflation and the U.S. budget deficit.
Warsh likely won’t address Bessent’s intervention directly, but could encourage markets to make their own assessment, while reiterating the Fed’s commitment to lowering inflation.
Warsh will speak at 10 a.m. ET. Much is riding on his willingness to elucidate his views at Jackson Hole, and answer at least some of Wall Street’s questions. His performance could set the course of his tenure at the Fed.