It's the 'Punchbowl' Effect. Nvidia Promises to Keep it Full, the Fed Wants to Take it Away

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

Federal Reserve legend William McChesney Martin Jr., who served as chairman for nearly two decades starting in the 1950s, pithily described the central banking ethos early in his tenure.

The Fed should act as "the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up," he said, noting that rate hikes in a fast-moving economy won't be cheered, but they would be necessary to tame inflation.

Contrast Martin's sober view with the optimism of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who plunked a massive, chip-plated punchbowl in the middle of the market's long AI party and promised revelers it would be filled to the brim for at least two more years.

Next year's sales will soar by 70%, Nvidia said, a staggering tally that will take its fiscal 2028 tally to around $680 billion.

"It won't be easy," Huang told CNBC late Wednesday, not long after the chip maker delivered impressive earnings. "But demand is super strong and, incredibly, it's accelerating."

By midmorning Thursday, shares in the world's most valuable company gained 7.7% to $225.70-a level last seen in late May. Broader markets were following along, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite getting a solid boost in what has been a surprising August rally.

Punchbowl placement, however, is something that hasn't been decided yet by today's Fed, led by new Chairman Kevin Warsh, heading into the key Jackson Hole symposium, and the central bank's next meeting in a couple of weeks.

Warsh, for his part, would rather not talk about punchbowls at all, preferring instead to keep quiet while he reads the market, digests economic and activity data, and gauges the views of his fellow bankers.

But he might not have a choice.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's salvo into the bond market last week, an attempt to tame the surge in long-term bond yields, may have forced Warsh's hand. As have inflation, income, and GDP readings that suggest solid economic growth, but quickening price pressures, heading into the final months of the year.

"The market is bothered less by whether he is a conventional hawk or dove than by his unwillingness to state the circumstances under which he would hike," said Steven Englander, head of global G1o FX research at Standard Chartered.

"The market has a hard time dealing with a Fed chair who does not say outright that he will support rate increases, however reluctantly, if they are needed to get inflation down," he added.

Hot inflation and a roaring tech trade aren't the only issues Warsh needs to at least acknowledge-if not fully address-when he takes the podium Friday to give the keynote address at Jackson Hole.

Runway debt and deficit concerns are pressuring bond yields, and complicating the Fed's "listen to the market" ambitions, while the Iran war is keeping global crude prices elevated-and volatile-heading into the autumn.

But will all that be enough for Warsh to jettison his early vow to leave markets to decide for themselves when the next rate move-or punchbowl placement-is truly on tap?

Probably not, according to Krishna Guha, head of economics and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, who thinks the Fed chair is still undecided about a September rate move.

Warsh has ground to make up after his July news conference, where he failed to articulate a coherent strategy for getting inflation back to the central bank's 2% annual target rate. It hurt his credibility.

"But he does not have to give a clear steer on September," Guha said. "So he will not."

Huang faces a similar plethora of uncertainties, from the AI spending of his biggest customers to supply-chain issues at the chip manufacturers that are holding back production to increasing prices that weigh on margins.

Still, he's committed to his own punchbowl placement.

We'll find out Friday if Warsh is willing to put a damper on the party, keep it rolling, or merely tell the partygoers to make that decision on their own.

 

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